Tuesday, June 25, 2013

The Aussie Dollar

It’s now almost 30 years since the float of the Australian dollar and rarely has it been stronger than in the past few years.

Only now are investors, surprised at the rapidity of the recent drop, waking up to this fact. The economy is starting to feel it too, with Ford closing down local operations, local tourism struggling as Australians head overseas and now Holden giving an ultimatum to staff: accept pay cuts or risk losing your job.

Many people explain away this strength with the phrase ‘‘commodities boom’’, but it’s more complex than that.

There are five key influences on the Australian dollar and each in its own way offers a clue as to how low the dollar might fall.
1. Interest rates
If you can borrow at 0.25 per cent in Europe, the US or Japan and can invest it in Australian bonds, assets or bank accounts paying 3-4 per cent, plus capital gains, why wouldn’t you?
National Australia Bank recently estimated that the upward pressure on the local currency as a result of the US Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate and their quantitative easing program could be worth as much as 20 cents in the Aussie.
And of course, those global investors could look at the Reserve Bank and feel pretty safe that if it were to reduce rates, it would do so cautiously and gradually.
For the last few years, Australia has been a giant post box for international hot money. Right now, that reputation is under pressure.

2. Global and Australian growth
In addition to relatively high rates, global investors flocked to Australia after 2009 due to the resilience of the Australian economy, assisted by local and Chinese stimulus.
We didn’t have a housing crash and we didn’t follow the US and UK economies into deep recession, which is why we became a safe harbour.

3. The US dollar
The US dollar is the most under-appreciated driver of the Aussie dollar.
Traders and investors talk about growth, interest rates, the mining boom, the budget position and household debt, but on the other side of the AUD/USD currency pair the same questions are asked of the US as an input into the Aussie.
The perceived value of the US dollar is an important factor in the relative price of the Aussie and, after a long period of weakness, it’s likely to grow in strength.

4. Investor sentiment
When we see a convergence of major drivers like this, investor sentiment itself becomes a fourth driver. Here, we enter the currency expectations market.
Since 2009 large speculators – hedge funds and the like – have been supporters of the Aussie dollar for all but a brief period of market instability in the middle of last year when the euro teetered.
Generally, global speculators have been supporters of the Australian dollar since the global financial crisis. That is now on the verge of a reversal.

5. Technicals
The Aussie has had strong technical chart since the GFC: every new move led to a new high and every dip was followed by a rebound. Even as volatility reached extreme levels in the past few years, the chart for the Aussie remained indomitable. Its safe-harbour status was never breached in a technical sense. That encouraged speculators and investors to buy the dips whenever global trouble loomed.

That’s how we got to where we are. To see where we might go, let’s examine these five key drivers from the other angle.
Australian interest rates are falling much further than most forecasters anticipated. The main cause is that Chinese growth is slowing faster than many expected (although not us), pushing down the key export prices that drove Australia’s commodity boom. As a result, mining projects have been cancelled en masse. Yet the boom ran long enough for mining companies to believe it would last.
Even with the cancelled projects, lots of new supply is on the way, just as China slows. This will drive commodity prices down further still.
The likelihood is that Chinese and Australian growth, and Australian interest rates, will fall further. So although the carry trade into the dollar is still positive, with declining yields and an increased risk of capital loss, it now faces more headwinds.
To make matters more difficult for the Aussie, the US housing market is recovering. Although fiscal challenges loom and monetary policy is still very loose, markets are beginning to price in stabilisation to the former and a tightening in the latter.
In the passing beauty parade of foreign exchange, the US dollar is being viewed as the least ugly. As the US dollar index rises it is hitting a variety of asset classes, including gold and the Aussie dollar.
Sentiment among hedge funds and speculative traders – see recent comments by George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller – has turned against our currency.
As recently as April this year, the Aussie was trading above $US1.05 before the recent fall took it to around $US0.92. That’s a fall of about 12 per cent.
So, how low can it go?
NAB recently suggested the $A could fall to 87 US cents by December 2014. But let’s remember that for all the extreme recent calls about the crash in the Aussie and the impending doom facing it, the reality is that it is simply back at the bottom of what might be considered a wide 10-15 cent range it has been in since breaking up through 94 US cents in mid-2010.
This sell-off is not all that shocking and the forecasters of doom forget this.
A fall below 94 cents would signal a different and lower scenario. Our assessment is that this is likely, especially if the economy weakens due to the withdrawal of mining investment, assuming consumption doesn’t fill the gap.
That may necessitate rate cuts to 2 per cent or just below.
Despite the recent highs, the Aussie dollar’s average remains steadfastly around 75 US cents. It may not revert to the mean but after 22 years without a recession, you wouldn’t want to bet on it.
What might happen if Australia did have a recession?
The answer was offered during the GFC low when global investors believed that was about to happen. Back then it fell to $US0.5960. There’s your answer.
To protect your portfolio against that possibility, and to hedge against falling interest rates, Intelligent Investor Share Advisor has recommended allocating a portion of your portfolio to overseas markets. Each of its model portfolios has an allocation to businesses that stand to benefit from a falling Aussie dollar.

This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 282288).
By Greg McKenna and David Llewellyn-Smith of MacroBusiness, in conjunction with Intelligent Investor Share Advisor, shares.intelligentinvestor.com.au.




Friday, February 15, 2013

Mechanical Drafting Services



Geometry is the heart and soul of any 3D CAD application. To create product designs that sizzle, you need advanced 3D geometry tools that are flexible and powerful, tools that let your imagination run wild. The fact is, not all 3D CAD geometry is built the same. The best geometry gives you the freedom to easily test new ideas and experiment in new directions. Only then can you break the bounds of innovation.

The team at Hamilton By Design offer exceptional geometry delivering greater innovation and higher-quality, highly manufacture-able product designs.

Our Drafting systems offer robust geometry creation capability is legendary, offering high-performance tools that make it easy to build even the most intricate product designs.

Smart Structures and our flexible hybrid modeling tools give you the power to quickly and effortlessly change the definition of a feature ‘on the fly’, instantly changing the same geometry shape from surfaces to solids to cuts. With our advanced surface modeling tools you can easily sculpt multiple surfaces and explore a multitude of complex design variations to find the optimal design. And with our unmatched complex geometry capabilities you can easily create highly complex rounds, drafts, and blends.

For More information on Mechanical Drafting Services
contact Hamilton By Design Today




Friday, November 9, 2012

Solidworks Central Coast


We use both SolidWorks and AutoCAD every day. Our entire business model is made up of online customers with local customers making up about 40%. Many of those customers, where we have never met face to face or only once at an initial meeting. With each customer, We are able to adapt and ultimately fulfill their Design / Drafting needs.

We have worked on everything from Government Military projects where we were only permitted "windowed knowledge" of what was being worked on in tandem with a design concept team, high voltage switch gear design and layout for a local biomass to electricity plant, as-built site plans for a refrigeration plant, Cafe fit outs, residential home design, injection molded plastic parts, sand and investment casted parts, patent drawings and illustrations and assistance for an exotic sports car designs.
Service Description
Hamilton By Design Base on the Central Coast offer s Drafting & Design service which is dedicated to providing complete service from conception to completion. Deadlines, Detail and Follow Through are all required to meet customer expectations, time lines, and budget. From Automotive based work to Architecture, our team has worked across a range of industries with Solidworks efficient Design and Drafting our goal.

We have worked in the following areas
-Architecture
-Steel Detailing
-Automotive
-Consumer Design
-Industrial Design
-Wiring Schematics
-P&IDs, Piping, Pressure Vessel Design and internals and Plant Layout
-Castings
-Mechanical and Machined parts
-Part Detailing including GD&T
-Electronic Equipment design and placement
-Skatepark Design
-Sheetmetal and Weldments
-Architectural Plumbing and Wiring and a little HVAC 
-Pick and Place Machinery
-Conveying and conveyors systems
 
For more information about a fabulous team of SolidWorks Deign on the Central Coast contact

Saturday, September 22, 2012

SolidWorks Designer

SolidWorks Designer required for busy design office servicing clients on the Central Coast, Hunter Valley, Illawarra and Sydney

Fixed Term Contract Position $55-$70/hour

Must have:
• 4+ Years SolidWorks Experience with mechanical and or structural design.
• An ability to work within a team environment.
• An ability to create manufacture-able designs from an engineer’s design scope.
• Associate Diploma at a minimum.
• An ability to perform in a team environment.
• Experience detailing shop drawing both structural and mechanical.

Experience with the following will be highly regarded
• A trade background in Fitting and Machining or Boilermaker Fabricator.
• Certified SolidWorks Qualifications.
• An ability to resolve design issues.
• Experience in managing projects and or small teams.
• Materials handling experience



About the company Hamilton By Design

Please forward CV anthony@hamiltonbydesign.com.au 

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Development of Equipment

Drafting Contractors – Hamilton By Design 

Hamilton By Design have been involved in the development of equipment we have have the opportunity to learn and integrate the following processes and associated equipment into the machinery we design and build:
  • Milling, drilling and tapping equipment
  • Explosive filling systems
  • Dispensing and mixing equipment for epoxies and related materials
  • Vacuum pumps and systems for product integrity testing and control
  • Fluxing and soldering equipment
  • Routing machinery
  • Automatic Screw Conveyors
  • Specialized Belt Conveyor Systems
  • Cyclone Seperating Systems 
  • Wide variety of component feeding and orienting systems for automatic assembly equipment
  • Automatic gauging and inspection equipment
  • PLC controlled pnumatic systems
  • Servo and stepper driven positioning controls and software
  • Mixing, combining matierals 
Hamilton By Design design using solidworks software and arree more than happy to tackle challanging projects that nobody else wants to touch


Wednesday, August 1, 2012

1st Class Drafting Service



At Hamilton BY Design we offer a full range of Computer Aided Drafting services with a personal touch. Customer service is given a high priority.

Drafting Services 

  • General CAD Drafting including Architectural, Mechanical Engineering and Building services.
  • All drawing work undertaken to clients own specifications, using bespoke dwg frames, styles and symbols if required or to Australia Standards.
  • General editing and updating of dwgs for 'as installed' etc. from clients CAD files
  • Paper to CAD conversion via scanning and onscreen digitizing or of existing drawings into Autocad or DXF format.
  • Auto-conversion of scanned dwgs for a fast low cost/quality solution to transferring paper dwgs into CAD.
  • 3D drawings for customer visualization or presentation work.

For a 1st class Drafting Service contact www.hamiltonbydesign.com.au

 today





DWG | DXF | AutoCAD | Solidworks | Inventor

Monday, July 23, 2012

SolidWorks Designer

SolidWorks Designer required for busy design office servicing clients on the Central Coast, Hunter Valley, Illawarra and Sydney

Permanent position $70-75K

Must have:
• 4+ Years SolidWorks Experience with mechanical and or structural design.
• An ability to create manufacture-able designs from an engineer’s design scope.
• Associate Diploma at a minimum.
• An ability to perform in a team environment.
• Experience detailing shop drawing both structural and mechanical.

Experience with the following will be highly regarded
• A trade background in Fitting and Machining or Boilermaker Fabricator.
• Certified SolidWorks Qualifications.
• An ability to resolve design issues.
• Experience in managing projects and or small teams.
• Materials handling experience

About the companywww.hamiltonbydesign.com.au



Please forward CV info@hamiltonbydesign.com.au





Solidworks Design | Mechanical Design | Structural Design

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Structural Steel Detailing

At Hamilton By design Quality detail workshop fabrication and erection drawings are the backbone of our Structural Steel Detailing Service. Shop Drawings are a road map utilized by project managers, fabricators and erectors and more times than not affect the profitability of any project.

Our Team are fully experienced in direct request for information co-ordination between engineers, designers and builders. Our facilities in house include software, hardware and human resources that are all experienced in completing detail workshop fabrication and erection drawings. Using the latest on parametric modeling tools like Smart Structures. Offers effective yet efficient structural steel detailing across a range of industries including Building, Mining and Steel making. Smart Structure that runs on the SolidWorks platform offers an automated process which produces fully detail workshop fabrication and erection drawing services that with Australian steel industry and international standards and engineering codes. 

Smart Structures enables the project to be drawn in 3 dimensions, which is offers a range of benefits thought out the structural engineering and design review process. Furthermore 3D models that are object orientated data based can be export to other external systems.




Structural | Steel | Detailing | Chatswood | Sydney

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Solidworks Sydney: Solidworks Designer for the Mining Industry


 Drafting & Design of Fixed and Mobile Mining Equipment Equipment to be installed across the world  Achieving first class innovative prod......

Solidworks Designer for the Mining Industry



  • Drafting & Design of Fixed and Mobile Mining Equipment
  • Equipment to be installed across the world 
  • Achieving first class innovative product delivery and engineering
  • Top Dollars paid for the right candidate
  • Growing and Successful Team
Hamilton By Design are partnering with a successful global industrial leader that design in both fixed and mobile plant for the mining industry across the world. The team is committed to achieving first class innovative product delivery and engineering, making this an exciting and dynamic work environment.

Due to high levels of demand alone with growth in our business we are seeking to expand their team. On offer is an excellent long term contract opportunity for a Mechanical Drafter. By taking a key role in the drafting and design of fixed and mobile plant equipment, both surface and underground mining and bulk materials handling.

We are seeking a solidworks certified professional or solidworks designer with over 5 years experience

You will have a strong mechanical aptitude and experience working within mining and heavy industry, along with prior experience and working knowledge of AutoCad and Solidworks. In addition, you will also have sound knowledge of Australian standards including OHS, and relevant qualifications.

This is your chance to join a listed company in a long term contract position. Benefits include working alongside a team of industry experts who are passionate about their work, and a strong understanding and commitment to achieving career satisfaction with a work/ life balance.